What is TruDemand?

How does TruDemand work?

TruDemand uses machine learning to model how your product’s demand is influenced by various factors, such as price, promotions, and availability. It simulates different scenarios to help you understand what drives sales and how changes might affect future demand.

TruDemand consists of three key models that work together to provide insights:

• Base Price Model – This model estimates the product’s base (non-promo) price by analysing its Average Selling Price (ASP) using a statistical algorithm.
• Promotion Detection Model – This model identifies when a product was on promotion by comparing the ASP to the estimated base price. It applies additional statistical checks to ensure accuracy.
• Baseline Model – This model simulates demand under different historical scenarios to break down sales and identify key performance drivers, such as promotions, availability, and cannibalisation.
  

Do I need to provide my own data for TruDemand to work?

No, TruDemand is fully automated and works with data already available through SKUtrak. You do not need to upload any additional data, as the system pulls the necessary information directly from retailer data feeds.

How far into the future can TruDemand forecast?

TruDemand currently provides demand forecasts up to 18 months into the future. These forecasts assume no changes in base price or distribution and are designed to help you plan ahead with confidence.

What factors are included in the TruDemand model?

TruDemand takes several key factors into account when modelling demand, including:

• Price – The cost of the product and how changes impact demand over time.
• Distribution – How many stores the product is ranged in.
• Availability – How many stores the product is available in..
• Promotions – The impact of promotional activity on sales.
• Seasonality – Patterns in demand that occur at specific times of the year.
• Special Events – Short-term events that could influence demand, such as Mother’s day or Pancake day.
  

Is weather included as a factor in TruDemand?

Weather is not currently included in TruDemand’s modelling. However, we plan to introduce weather as a factor in future updates.

In the meantime, TruDemand includes an “unexplained sales” metric, which captures unusually high or low sales that cannot be attributed to known factors such as promotions or availability. In some cases, these unexplained fluctuations may reflect the impact of weather.

Which retailers is TruDemand available for?

TruDemand is available for all retailers currently supported within SKUtrak. This means you can use TruDemand insights across your entire SKUtrak data set, without the need for additional integrations or custom setups.

How often are TruDemand predictions updated?

TruDemand predictions are updated at different frequencies depending on the model type:

• Base price and promotion detection metrics are updated daily to reflect any recent changes.
• Volume decomposition and baseline forecast metrics are updated weekly, ensuring your forecasts remain up to date without becoming too volatile.
  

How accurate is TruDemand?

TruDemand provides a baseline forecast, which estimates demand assuming no promotions and full availability. This makes direct accuracy measurement challenging, as it is not a traditional demand forecast that accounts for real-world fluctuations.

However, TruDemand includes automated checks to validate data quality and ensure reliable insights. The best way to evaluate TruDemand’s accuracy is to test it on your own products and compare the outputs against your sales experience.

What are TruDemand’s key metrics?

TruDemand provides a range of metrics that help you understand sales performance in detail. These include:

• Base Price – The estimated non-promo price of the product, calculated daily in pounds sterling (£).
• Promotion Flag – A daily indicator that shows whether the product was on promotion:
  • 1: The product was on promotion.
  • 0: The product was not on promotion.
• Volume Decomposition – A detailed breakdown of sales performance, showing how different factors contributed to total sales. This includes:
  • Baseline Sales – The sales that would have occurred without any promotional activity.
  • Promotion Sales – Additional sales achieved as a direct result of promotions.
  • Lost Sales (Availability) – Sales lost due to the product being out of stock or unavailable.
  • Lost Sales (Cannibalisation) – Sales lost due to customers choosing another promoted product instead.
  • Unexplained Sales – Sales that cannot be attributed to known factors, such as price or promotions.
    

What is Baseline Sales?

Baseline Sales estimate the level of demand for a product assuming normal conditions, with no promotions and full availability on shelves.

TruDemand provides two types of Baseline Sales insights:

• Historical Baseline Sales – Measures past demand levels to identify trends and patterns.
• Forecast Baseline Sales – Predicts demand up to 18 months into the future, assuming no major changes in price or distribution.

These insights help you understand how your product would perform under stable conditions to support strategic planning and post-hoc evaluations.

How can TruDemand help me?

TruDemand gives you a clear, data-driven understanding of what drives your sales performance. By breaking sales down into meaningful components, you can:

• Determine how promotions impact demand and overall sales.
• Identify potential lost sales due to poor availability or competition from other products.
• Make more informed decisions about pricing, promotions, and stock levels.

With TruDemand, you can confidently plan for the future and optimise your product’s performance based on robust, actionable insights.